大空头香橼反水看多特斯拉 16大理由力挺冲击360美元

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  知名做空机构香橼对特斯拉观点转变 盘中大涨6.29%

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  来源:出海记IPO

  大空头香橼一直 反水发布就看特斯拉的报告,是因为昨夜特斯拉股价逆势暴涨超过12%。对于写出这份报告,香橼此人 不是相信:“ As much as you can’t believe you are reading this, we can’t believe we are writing this!”

  香橼就看特斯拉的理由主要有:

  1、持续稳定现金流,脱离资本市场依赖

  Tesla will, finally, after 10 years of unprofitable existence, have the ability to prove that it can be a sustainable, highly cash flow generative entity that is no longer reliant on the capital markets。

  2、强劲的季度业绩让公司无需向资本低头

  A strong quarter removes the overhang of a necessary capital raise – we suspect that Tesla will be generating more than enough cash to both fund aggressive growth plans and build cash on the balance sheet。

  3、从玩概念到真成长(这也不与贾总根本性的区别)

  It transitions Tesla from a “proof of concept” story to a “TAM / how much can this grow” story, attracting a whole new growth-oriented investor base。

  4、看空特斯拉主要来自于估值和增长(现在这一 问题不占据 了)

  It makes the bear case solely about Valuation and Demand。

  5、短期利率保持稳定

  Short interest is at the same (high) level as five years ago though risk is heavily skewed to the upside in the near-term。

  (Even if Tesla does not meet its profitability goals, it is well funded and long-term shareholders will look towards:)

  6、在中国上海建厂(中国汽车业破天荒头一遭)

  Secured an agreement to build a wholly owned Shanghai facility (Note: this was the first time China let a foreign automaker open up shop without a Chinese company as its partner)

  7、Model 3进军欧洲

  The entrance of Model 3 in the European market

  8、欧洲建新厂

  New factory to be constructed in Europe

  9、未来关税不可能 下降

  10、特斯拉卡车

  Tesla semi truck production announced

  11、加入标普800指数(预计2019年4月)

  Tesla added to S&P (likely an April 2019 event)

  12、Model Y模型(2019年3月)

  Model Y Unveil (March 2019)

  13、Q4表现远超预期

  Q4 deliveries and earnings far in excess of consensus

  14、Q3强劲表现后评级提升的潜力

  Potential analyst upgrades given significantly negatively skewed consensus and positive Q3 performance

  15、特斯拉9.0自主研发软件将发布

  The imminent release of the Tesla 9.0 autonomous software

  16、马斯克希望此人 的股价超过380美元(这是绝杀)

  Most importantly (as our readers’ Twitter feeds show) we believe Musk is focused on a Tesla stock price above $380, which would remove significant amounts of convertible debt (strike price $380-$380) and leave the Company with a very manageable debt load comprised of $2B of senior notes。